UN-OCHA: Climate Change heating up conflict

BALI, 10 December 2007 (IRIN) - Increasing pressure caused by climate change on essential resources like water could not only trigger domestic conflicts but also have a destabilising effect globally, warn UN officials.

"It is not far-fetched to begin to see growing tensions; not far fetched to think climate change will globally have a destabilising effect," said Achim Steiner, Executive Secretary of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), who drew a scenario in which countries heavily affected by climate change would blame those not seen as doing enough to cut emissions.

Steiner's comments followed the release of a report, Climate Change as a Security Risk, by the German government's scientific advisory body on 10 December at the UN climate change conference in Bali, Indonesia: it warned that environmental shocks could outpace the adaptive capacities of some societies in the coming decades.

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Research in recent decades has shown that land degradation, water shortages and resource competition, when combined with other conflict-amplifying factors, have caused violence and conflict in the past, said the German study. Earlier this year, UNEP cited the war in Darfur as an example of the impact of climate change on stability.

"We are not trying to depoliticise the conflict," said Steiner, "[but] we need to learn, to understand, that if we had taken into account some of the factors [related to climate change], we could have avoided some of the conflicts that have exploded."

Regional hotspots highlighted by the report are in the longer post - click on the link below.

Regional hotspots

The German government's report draws scenarios of the social impact of climate change in regional hotspots. Some of them are:

North Africa: The populous Nile Delta will be at risk from sea-level rise and salinisation in agricultural areas. A drop in food production, water scarcity, high population growth and poor political problem-solving capacity could intensify political crisis and migratory pressure.

Sahel zone: Drought, water scarcity and food insecurity in a region already characterised by weak states and instability could aggravate social crises.

Southern Africa: Droughts and water scarcity could overstretch capacities in some of the poorest countries in the world.

Central Asia: Above-average warming and glacial retreat could exacerbate problems in the region, characterised by political and social tensions.

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh: Glacial retreat in the Himalayas would jeopardise water supply to millions of people, with sea-level rise and cyclones aggravating crises characterised by cross-border conflicts (India and Pakistan) and unstable governments.

"If we look at South Asia alone, the melting [glaciers would mean] tens of millions of people will have to leave their livelihoods. Where will they go? How will they impact on the host communities that receive them?" said Steiner. "We must look at the potential security threat posed by these changes - we cannot bury our heads in the sand."