Global Dashboard: window of opportunity on scarcity issues starts to close

Alex Evans from the Global Dashboard has commented in a recent post on the lack of political initiatives to take preventive action regarding food (and resources in general) scarcity. The window of opportunity presented them by the credit crunch and the global downturn starts to close with rising oil prices.

As we are barely climbing out from the worst recession since 1930, oil prices have reached mid 2007 levels already. Together with that, food prices have followed suit:

As I’ve argued in numerous previous posts, we were never out of the woods on the food / fuel pincer movement; it was the collapse in prices following the credit crunch that was the blip, not the price spike that preceded it. And what’s most frustrating now is the extent to which policymakers have frittered away the chance we had to get onto a more secure footing.

[...] Now, on top of all of that, it looks like policymakers are also in the process of fudging the one policy process that could manage oil scarcity and climate change at the same time: the Copenhagen talks on the UNFCCC post-2012 commitment period.

The problem, of course, is that once prices for oil and food rise beyond a certain level, we all go back into kneejerk / panic mode – and try talking about the need for cooperative long term frameworks then. Sigh. #Fail.

Maps: climate injustice and the first humanitarian map to really help aid workers

Here are a few interesting updates from the mapping department:

The Global Dashboard posted two interesting maps offering a view on the world from the perspective of climate change. They show the countries' size according to their fossil-fuel carbon-dioxide emissions and the burden they are carrying due to climate change. Note the startling contrast between 'the West' and Africa-Asia! Both maps come from a recent report of the World Population Fund (UNFPA) on women, population and climate change.

The Aid Worker Daily also posted about the release of the first interactive map that allows everybody to update its contents. This way aid workers have an excellent up to date account of the site they're working in (c.q. Kibera, Nairobi, Kenya). To be expanded soon to other (urban) areas, hopefully!

AlertNet: A humanitarian's guide to Copenhagen

In attendance of next week's COP 15, AlertNet published a list of humanitarian focal points for Copenhagen. Although not party to the actual negotiations, aid agencies will try to influence the negotiations with presentations on the sidelines of the conference. In so doing, they will provide the negotiators with the humanitarian story of climate change.

A few of the points discussed:

• How much money will be available to help communities adapt to an increasingly erratic climate?
• How will money be channelled to affected countries or communities?
• How do you define who is most vulnerable to climate change?
• Will forest-dwelling communities receive benefits from REDD?
• What about the rights of people displaced by increasing and more intense natural disasters?
• Will food security and agriculture get their due?
• Is anyone paying attention to protecting people's health?

FIC + HFP Humanitarian Horizons: tackling future challenges

The Feinstein International Center (FIC) of Tufts University and the Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) of King's College London initiated a joint project called Humanitarian Horizons. This project, launched in October 2008, focuses both on HFP's analyses of changing dimensions of future crisis drivers and on making more practical the exploratory futures research of FIC's Ambiguity and Change project. So far four papers by leading experts have been released, which will be incorporated into a "Practitioners' Guide to the Future", to be published in December 2009.

The Humanitarian Horizons project is a futures capacity-building initiative intended to assist the humanitarian sector to prepare for the complexities of the future by enabling organizations to enhance their anticipatory and adaptive capacities. The first step in this process is the exploration of four futures-related drivers widely expected to have an impact on humanitarian crises and responses to them. These four drivers are:

• climate change;
• globalization;
• major demographic shifts;
• drivers internal to the humanitarian community, e.g. technological advances, the "shrinking" of humanitarian space, new actors, changing financing structures and the like.

Dan Smith: Tories to prevent DfID from becoming uppity teenager

After having reviewed DfID's White Paper, Dan Smith tackles the Green Paper that the Conservatives published over the summer. Smith argues that, overall, the Green Paper is conservative in the wrong way.

A few appetisers:

Under the Conservatives, DFID will remain a separate department but be better coordinated with the Foreign Office and the rest of government (pp 56-57). Some may suspect that “coordinated” is a polite term for “subordinated” but the Green Paper authors would probably insist that they are talking about a recalibrated division of labour with the Foreign Office taking a clearer policy lead. Time will tell which version is more accurate but, certainly, the Green Paper offers heart to critics concerned that DFID has become an independent fiefdom with its own foreign policy.[...]

I worry that when the Conservative team criticises what it sees as the NGO culture in DFID, it is the engagement and commitment of staff members at all levels of the organisation that they are taking issue with. And I worry that if they put pressure on engagement and commitment and the accompanying spiky attitudes, NGO-ish atmosphere and casual clothes, they risk replacing those positive qualities with a bureaucratic approach that, in the event and with greater cause, will annoy them even more.

[...] one way a Conservative government will get value for money is by focusing the UK’s international aid on fewer than the 108 countries to whom it goes now. The document rightly abstains from saying how many countries will get it, though it does commit to ending UK aid to China, and it says a Conservative government will strengthen links with Commonwealth countries, implying though not promising more aid to Commonwealth developing countries. [...]

I am intensely pleased that the Conservative Party has committed itself to continuing to expand development assistance. There is much to welcome. But it has not yet done any better than the government – in fact, it has done somewhat worse – in the essential task of shaping a new way of understanding and supporting international development.

Change.org: Climate Change and Conflict

A few weeks back there was a world wide Climate Change Blog Action Day, organised by Change.org. Here are a few links that Change.org's Humanitarian Relief blogger Michael Bear gathered together, all relating to the causal impact of climate change on conflict:

• Conflict in the Age of Climate Change (from the Stop Genocide blog)
• A brief history of climate change and conflict (from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists)
• Climate change and Conflict (International Crisis Group)
• a map of countries most at risk from violence resulting from climate change (International Alert)

Michael notes:

[T]he issue isn't one of surviving an especially fierce rain or harsh winter, but the cumulative effects of many fierce rains and many harsh winters. Next, climate change alone won't cause conflict but, along with other factors, will contribute to and shape it. It's one variable among many others, such as cultural, economic, or demographic factors. Last, unless a society learns to adapt to sustained climate change, its wealth will decline and its social fabric will weaken with each passing year. But even if a society faces these environmental challenges, a trigger--such as an assassination, extreme natural event, or random act of group violence--is usually required to ignite violent conflict.

Guardian: GM crops to save Africa from disaster?

In a new scientific paper, professor Sir Gordon Conway predicts a catastrophic increase of food shortages in Africa, as a result of the devastating impact of climate change on the continent - the Guardian reported. Africa already suffers to a greater extent than the rest of the world from the effects of climate change, such as rising temperature, more droughts, floods and storm surges.

Conway predicts hunger on the continent could increase dramatically in the short term as droughts and desertification increase, and climate change affects water supplies. "Projected reductions in crop yields could be as much as 50% by 2020 and 90% by 2100," the paper says.

"In certain circumstances we will need GM crops because we wont be able to find the gene naturally. GM may be the speediest and most efficient way to increase yields. Drought tolerance is governed by a range of genes. It is a big problem for breeders of [both] GM and ordinary plants."

Sir Gordon argues that more research into climate change needs to be done. Whereas forecasts all predict increasingly extreme weather conditions, their exact manifestation remains uncertain.

CRED Crunch Newsletter Nov 09: major losses in Asia and S-America C

The November 2009 newsletter from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) provides a balanced perspective on disaster data from the first semester of 2009.

Although global disaster impact figures in the first half of the year 2009 appeared relatively low compared to the 1999-2008 yearly average, many countries, mostly in Asia and South America, suffered major losses. [...]

The first half of 2009 underlines societies’ vulnerability to climate-related and geophysical disasters. A long road remains to better protect the vulnerable and developing societies.

HPG policy brief: Untangling Early Recovery

The Overseas Development Institute's Humanitarian Policy Group has published a new Policy Brief: Untangling Early Recovery. This document provides an overview of early recovery, in preparation of up-coming HPG research on early recovery, stabilisation and transitions. Its main arguments are that:

• ‘Early recovery’ has functioned as a way to classify and conceive of a broad range of activities and strategies which seek to promote recovery in humanitarian and transitional settings. However, the added value of early recovery has yet to be consistently demonstrated.
• Attention to early recovery is part of a drive to better organise international responses to foster recovery from conflict. Policy-makers should understand the opportunities and tensions presented by different approaches, including humanitarian assistance, development, and stabilisation, peace-building and state-building.
• Policy-makers and practitioners must be specific in portraying problems and proposed solutions; early recovery has served as a catch-all term for very different issues related to recovery.

ReliefWeb: The impact of the economic crisis on food security - impacts and lessons learned

Reliefweb notified the release of the 10th progress report by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation on The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2009.

This report highlights the fact that, even before the food crisis and the economic crisis, the number of hungry people had been increasing slowly but steadily. With the onset of these crises, however, the number of hungry people in the world increased sharply.

As a result of the global economic crisis, developing countries are facing declines in remittances, export earnings, foreign direct investment and foreign aid, leading to loss of employment and income. This loss of income is compounded by food prices that are still relatively high in the local markets of many poor countries. As a result, poor households have been forced to eat fewer meals and less-nutritious food, cut back on health and education expenses, and sell their assets.

Despite the financial constraints faced by governments around the world, agricultural investment and safety nets remain key parts of an effective response to reduce food insecurity both now and in the future.

ReliefWeb: What happens to rights amidst the provision of tsunami relief?

ReliefWeb signalled the publication of a report on Protection in Natural Disasters of the Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement. This report draws the attention to the protection needs of people affected by natural disasters but which humanitarian actors often do not address while providing medical care, food, and other forms of relief: the protection from discrimination, exploitation and other human rights violations.

The paper provides an overview of protection challenges confronting those affected by natural disasters, drawing on examples presented at two workshops in Asia and in Central America. It concludes that

[...] there is still a lack of awareness of protection needs and problems in natural disasters. While first responders and others are understandably focused on immediate life-saving measures, critical issues such as discrimination against those viewed as having low social status, women, persons with disabilities and others too often goes unnoticed. Once introduced to human rights issues, however, aid workers tend to recognize examples of discrimination from their own experiences right away.

Typologies of conflict and categories of civilians

Two recent publications caught our eye:

• The International Review of the Red Cross publishes an issue focussing on the legal classification of armed conflict, increasingly vital in the growing number complex contexts in which the Movement works which do not fit the classic definitions of war between state actors
• HPG's new report 'Realising Protection' looks at the meaning and implications of three categories of protected status for non-combatants – ‘civilian’, ‘refugee’ and ‘internally displaced’ – and the frameworks of international law and custom and 'shifting political priorities and engagement by governments and regional and international actors' which surround them. Ultimately, they argue, 'it is the observance or otherwise of basic protection rules and norms by national and international duty-bearers that has the greatest impact on people’s safety, security and wellbeing'.

Review of IASC products: invitation to participate

Since 1992, the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) has issued policy statements, guidelines, and manuals, which help to set the normative frameworks, common standards and good practice for the humanitarian community.

The IASC is now reviewing a selection of IASC products to find out how well known, well used, and useful their products are, and how they can be made more accessible.

All humanitarian workers are invited to give their views using short on-line surveys, available in English, French and Spanish. The surveys are available online until the 23rd October.

ODI-HPN: Humanitarian Exchange no 44, featuring 'The Crisis in the West Bank and Gaza'

The latest Humanitarian Exchange (no 44, September 2009) from the Humanitarian Practice Network of the Overseas Development Institute features a series of articles on the current situation in the occupied Palestine territories, and on the impact of the barrier and the closure system.

Rolf Holmboe, Denmark’s representative to the Palestinian Authority, describes his government’s programme to enable municipalities to provide basic services and support community development. Other articles look at UNDP’s efforts to help individuals and communities to reclaim their agency and dignity, the hidden crisis of displacement, the impact of human rights group B’Tselem’s distribution of video cameras to Palestinian civilians and a community based child protection programme instigated by Save the Children.

Articles in the policy and practice section include an examination of civil–military relations in natural disasters, methods for measuring the socio-economic impact of post-disaster shelter programmes and the challenges of emergency nutrition programming in Eritrea. Others focus on a new decision-making tool for use in complex humanitarian environments, the question of whether chronic conflict and recurrent disasters exacerbate social divisions or strengthen cohesion, the ways in which the media influence charitable giving and the lessons learned from the deployment of UN and EU hybrid protection forces in Chad.

Liberia: Jeneh's story - moving on from war

ICRC in Yemen: Providing relief assistance to displaced people

Harvard IHL: Humanitarian access and security in the OPT - a dialogue with practitioners

There is a new topic on the ALNAP forum which may be of interest for people researching access and movement issues in conflict zones. Harvard University commissioned last year a project under the title "An exchange of practitioner perspectives on humanitarian access and security concerns in the OPT".

In this project, a recently retired officer of the IDF and the Country Director of CARE International in West Bank and Gaza present their views on contemporary challenges to humanitarian access. The authors have engaged

in a direct dialogue on the most recent issues plaguing humanitarian access and security, specifically concerns with access to the Gaza Strip and cooperation between humanitarian practitioners and security forces on the ground.

Alertnet: Global warming created new (and worse) type of El Niño

Reuters reported on the publication in the most recent issue of Nature of research that assesses the impact of global warming on El Niño in Australia and India:

Global warming may have spawned a new type of El Nino in the central Pacific and this could worsen the droughts in Australia and India, a new study by researchers in South Korea and the United States has found.

While the conventional El Nino is a warm body of water stretching across the tropical Eastern Pacific, this new El Nino is a horseshoe-shaped region of warm ocean in the central Pacific flanked by unusually cooler waters, they wrote in a paper published in the latest issue of Nature.

AlertNet: Bad harvest + El Niño = Hunger in the Horn of Africa

The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has released a new report warning for increased hunger in Eastern Africa, Reuters reported. The number of food aid-dependent people, now already some 20 million, is likely to increase following poor crop forecasts due to continued drought in the region.

The effects of El Niño, which usually brings heavy rains towards the end of the year, could make matters worse, resulting in floods and mudslides, destroying crops both in the field and in stores, increasing livestock losses and damaging infrastructure and housing.

In Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia crops are expected to drop significantly and endanger the food security of many millions of Africans. But, worst hit is Somalia:

According to FAO's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, Somalia is facing the worst humanitarian crisis in 18 years, with approximately half the population - an estimated 3.6 million people-- in need of emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance. This includes 1.4 million rural people affected by the severe drought, about 655 000 urban poor facing high food and non-food prices, and 1.3 million internally displaced people, a result of escalating fighting and conflict.

HIV as you've never seen it before

Luke Jerram's glass microbiology sculptures. He has a show on at the Smithfield Gallery from the 22nd September to the 3rd October, 10am-6pm, and the launch is the 22nd September 6-8pm.

Hat-tip, once again, to Chris Blattman.

IRIN: A rough guide to climate change in Africa

The World Economic and Social Survey (WESS), published annually by the UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs, has devoted its 2009 issue to climate change. It includes an accessible, if unsettling, guide to some of the major impacts of climate change in various African countries, based on the IPCC's reports. Some headlines after the jump, or read more and download the full report from IRIN.

Some headlines:

Food security

East Africa

Rainfall is expected to increase in some parts of the region. The loss of about 20 percent of plant and animal life in Lake Tanganyika is projected, with a 30 percent decrease in fish yields. In Kenya a one-metre rise in the sea level could affect the production of mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts, causing losses of almost US$500 million a year. On the plus side, in parts of the Ethiopian highlands a combination of higher temperatures and better rainfall may lengthen the growing season.

Southern Africa

More frequent El Niño conditions - in which sea surface temperatures become warmer across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean - could disrupt rains, bringing a notable drop in maize production. On the other hand, growing seasons may lengthen in parts of Southern Africa, for example Mozambique, owing to a combination of increased temperature and higher rainfall. South Africa: In Africa's major grain producer net revenues from crops could shrink by up to 90 percent by 2100.

Water resources

East and West Africa

Rainfall is likely to increase in these regions, easing droughts in the east of the continent but bringing more frequent floods in the west.

Southern Africa

Large areas of the region are already experiencing water shortages, or are arid and trying to prevent encroaching desertification, so there is likely to be a greater number of people living with water stress by 2055 as rainfall becomes more erratic or declines.

Health

West Africa

Good news! By 2050 and beyond, a large part of the western Sahel will probably become unsuitable for malaria transmission.

East Africa

Based on parasite survey data, the previously malaria-free highland areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by 2080s. In central Somalia, areas that now have low rates of malaria could develop high prevalence of the disease. Rift Valley fever epidemics - evident during the 1997-1998 El Niño event in East Africa and associated with flooding - could become more frequent and widespread as El Niño events increase.

Southern Africa

More areas are likely to become more suitable for malaria, with a southward expansion of the transmission zone into Zimbabwe and South Africa.

How do humanitarians learn?

The most excellent Chris Blattman started the sort of rolling debate that makes the humanitarian blogosphere quite a useful place to have one's antennae out for this week when he posed a few questions - and offered some solutions - on his blog:

First, a lot of people aren’t in the habit of reading, either because they don’t like it or (more likely) they want to, but (like many of us) they find it hard to turn aspiration into action, especially in the frantic business of aid. Second, it’s one thing to read more research, and another to read it critically. Alone. Without falling asleep. And third, it’s another great leap entirely to turn reading into application.

He suggested getting into reading blog posts by humanitarians, absorbing the CARE academy's resources, running global reading clubs and getting cheap mp3 players packed with podcasts like Owen Barder's Development Drums series into every Landcruiser, and suggested that a humanitarian blogger supergroup could write posts, provide podcasts and even innovate some miraculous techy widget to help.

Paul Currion over at humanitarian.info was interested but unmoved. He asked where the evidence was that research, reading and learning directly improved programmes, over and above improving the minds of the humanitarians doing the reading; criticised the writing style of academic articles which are 'functionally useless' for many hands-on aid workers. He also rightly points out that on a six-hour car ride or after a 12 hour working day, the last thing anyone wants to do is 'listen to a detailed discussion of a book about nutrition'. Instead, he proposes:

1. Holding workshops in the field that bring people together across a) different organisations, b) different countries and/or c) different disciplines, focus on core transferable skills, emphasising practical skills that reflect policy. Old school!
2. Creating structures that enable the professional links developed in those workshops to be maintained more effectively over time. Call it social networking if you must, but stop looking at Facebook. This is where the technology comes in – new school!
3. Then (and this is the really, really difficult bit) let these groups define the direction of future learning. Regularly poll staff to see what they want to learn, how they want to learn and when they want to learn, and shape your approach accordingly.

There needs to be some imagination around these two approaches, a willingness for organisations to give up control of the learning process, and a long-term investment that will definitely see mixed results.

So then Michael Bear at Change.org jumps in. He appreciates the initial thought and the critique that followed it, but doesn't think much of the solutions proposed.

Blattman assumes that all aid workers are somehow alike, or at least assumes that most aid workers actually want to delve into the literature and research, and that it's only external barriers - be they technological or stylistic (cue cliche about academic writing) - that keep them from doing so.

In my experience, aid workers are just like everyone else. Some want to learn more, and some don't.

Podcasts and book clubs might entice the first group, but certainly not the second.Currion, on the other hand, does a good job of critiquing Blattman's argument, but then comes up somewhat short in terms of offering concrete suggestions - the recommendation to "create structures" without any further detail isn't all that useful.Instead, I think the answer is institutional - aid workers, like everyone else, respond to incentives.

Especially when those incentives are tied to performance evaluations. If aid agencies are serious about fostering learning, they'll make it a requirement, tying it to bonus or other incentive structures. Agencies could require that aid workers take X number of online courses a year, or organize mandatory trainings and workshops to disseminate the latest research and learning...

This costs money, but everything costs money. It's all a matter of prioritization. If learning is in fact critical to the delivery of effective aid programs, then it should be prioritized by aid agencies. If learning isn't critical to the delivery of effective aid programs, then we shouldn't worry about it overmuch.

On the other hand, Amanda at Wronging Rights liked the podcast idea, which she sees as already happening. She notes that '...aid workers are certainly receptive to new ideas and research... I get emails all the time from people in the field or freshly out of it, engaging with our posts and offering new ideas.' This certainly chimes with my experience - people in the field seem to be starved of the opportunity to debate and share learning and it's the people at Head Office who would rather swallow whole copies of Disasters than sit through another workshop. She goes on:

My suggestion: don't think of the aim of this project as getting people in the field to read, or to listen. Think of it as getting them to write, and to talk. Measure success in terms of posts blogged, tweets tweeted, pods casted, and articles published by the workers you're trying to reach, on the subjects you want to publicize.

Focus on the conversation, and getting it to become self-perpetuating, and the information dissemination/absorption will take care of itself. No one wants to sound like an idiot, so they'll need to process the information before they can comment on it. (And if they do go ahead and put out uninformed blather, then that's a useful signal for anyone thinking of hiring them...)

Equally importantly, making this project about discussion will also ensure that the flow of information runs both ways: not just academia to field, but field back to academia.

So what do you think? Do we need to worry about getting people in the field and at Head Office to learn, and discuss what they take in? Have these guys missed the point a bit by not talking about the importance of sharing what you've learned, not from books, articles and blog posts, but from programmes and the people they work with and for? How can we help either of those things to happen? Let us know your views in the comments field below - I know I and everyone else whose role it is to support learning in the humanitarian sector would really value the debate extending beyond us lot - people who by definition spend their time geeking out on the internet.

Change.org: Aid Worker PTSD

Some excellent resources for stressed-out aid workers linked from Change.org's Humanitarian Relief blog this week.

ALNAP: new online system for dissemination of members' announcements

ALNAP has announced that members can use a new system to disseminate vacancies, events and activities among ALNAP members on its renewed website, instead of emails sent out by the Secretariat.

Full members can long in their accounts, where they will find three clickable links to post vacancies, activities or events as appropriate.

Observer members can forward the details of their announcements to alnap@alnap.org, after which these details will be posted online.

If you wish to stay up to date, make sure to check regularly ALNAP's Jobs & Consultancies, Calendar of Events and Members' activities. Alternatively, you can subscribe to the appropriate RSS feed on the feeds page (where you will also find more instructions on how to use them).

Great graphic on humanitarian gaps

From Reliefweb, via Change.org, the snappily-titled 'Major Humanitarian Crises Requirements Snapshot':

Silly name or not, it's an interesting and informative glance.

Running out of/on water?!

Several messages in the past week have highlighted the various ways in which water is becoming more and more a challenge in the lives of disaster-afflicted populations.
In Kenya, for example, the first climate change refugees have given up their herder life styles to settle down to make charcoal or sell firewood. Droughts in the country have gone up from once every decade up to almost every year. This gives nomades too little time to recover from losses suffered. In addition to the greater scarcity in drinking water, drought-induced hunger is more and more becoming a security concern in the country as well, with higher levels of violence reported.
In a similar vein, Timor Leste President Ramos-Horta warns for land-and-water wars in the near future, unless more attention will be paid to the rural areas that are more and more affected by the disastrous impacts of climate change.
On the other hand, several countries, notably in the Caribbean area, are hit by hurricanes and floods with greater intensity every year, said John Holmes, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. If no drastic reduction in carbon house emissions is negotiated at Copenhagen in December, he warns, these extreme water conditions (both the lack and abundance of it) will lead to unprecedented population movements, with high potential for conflict.
In a response to these threats, Reuters reports,

A 155-nation conference in Geneva agreed on a plan to improve climate information to help people cope with ever more droughts, floods, sandstorms and rising sea levels projected this century. The plan for a "Global Framework for Climate Services" includes the appointment of a task force of high-level, independent advisors within four months.

The panel's report is expected in twelve months, with recommendations on among others disaster risks, human health, transport and tourism, managing water, energy and securing food supplies.

HPG policy brief: a clash of principles in Pakistan?

A new policy brief of the Humanitarian Practice Group (HPG) discusses the response of the humanitarian community in Pakistan and assesses the dilemma between sticking to a principled approach and supporting the government's efforts to rebuild stability in the country. The fight against the Taliban invokes more military and political responses of the government, often overriding the humanitarian principles.

Aid agencies are faced with the dilemma of engaging with and supporting government efforts to promote stability or maintaining a principled approach. Their added value in promoting stability is not clear and their influence over these processes is likely to be mixed. A principled approach will be limiting in terms of influencing domestic policy and gaining access. Resolving or managing these dilemmas will require strategic decision-making based on context analysis and strong leadership.
Irrespective of the approach adopted, advocacy has a significant role to play in ensuring adherence to International Humanitarian Law in the conduct of hostilities, that there is sufficient humanitarian funding and that efforts to promote stability ensure that the needs of the most vulnerable are met, and that political and security considerations do not override the humanitarian imperative.

IRIN: UNEP report says HIV/AIDS and climate change should join forces

A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and UNAIDS, IRIN reports, seeks to join the global activist forces in the fight against climate change and HIV/AIDS. So far, both threats have known separate responses, but climate change may very well have many impacts that could worsen the HIV/AIDS situation in the developing world.

The biggest threat - already present in many parts of the world - is food insecurity caused by more intense and widespread droughts, and other extreme weather events such as flooding.

The authors also speculate that competition for increasingly scarce resources brought on by climate change, such as water and grazing, may heighten the risk of conflict and migration, and deepen gender and social inequities - all factors with the potential to fuel the spread of HIV.

Academic article: Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work

Women's unpaid care work is a feature of life in sub-Saharan countries, where nearly 67% of PLWHA live and where 75% of all AIDS deaths occurred in 2007. Women comprise 58% of adult HIV infections and tend to be more adversely affected because of their primary caregiving role.

Increasing reliance on home-based care to supplement an overstretched health system fails to acknowledge the cost on the patient, the carer and the wider family, including financial resources, time resources, and opportunity costs. For women, this means time taken away from paid work, unpaid household chores, and agriculture. For girl children, caregiving is at the expense of school work, leisure activities and important social development activities - including HIV prevention activities. In many cases, particularly when heading a family as a result of being orphaned, many girls cannot go to school at all, renouncing their right to education - affecting their potential income and career choices, and ability to play a role in wider society.

Policies should be developed to recognise these effects and take into consideration the needs of women and girl children carers, including the right to education. An option might be to see care work as a professional career option which would allow girls, women and workers to progress and develop. This would create a pool of trained, qualified professionals who are adequately compensated. Finally, challenging the assumption and strong cultural traditions that mean caring is women's work, not men's, would lay the foundation for a more equal sharing of care responsibilities.

Citation: Makina, A. (2009) Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work, in Gender and Development, Vol 17, No. 2, July 2009 pp309-319

Summary by Laura.

Change.org picks Kenya as a brewing troublespot

Michael Bear of the Humanitarian Relief blog on Change.org has listed Kenya with Chad and Southern Sudan as a coming humanitarian crisis. His analysis:

The stable bastion of east Africa. Except, well, for those rather brutal post-election riots in early 2008, the scars of which are still not completely healed. The Kenyan economy is forecasted to shrink next year, the first time the economy has contracted in almost a decade. Corruption is, if anything, growing worse, while the price of basic commodities is increasing - for instance, the cost of maize has doubled over the past year.

And, finally, we're looking at a full-blown food crisis in the coming months, as drought and spiraling prices have left 3.8 million Kenyans dependent on food assistance. (For a map of the drought early warning stages in Kenya, see here.)

An ineffective coalition government. A shrinking economy. Rising food prices. A recent history of violence. Not good, not good at all.

Read more here.

AlertNet: Africa wants $67 bln per year to compensate global warming

As if they were picking up last week's call to invest in developing countries to combat climate change, African leaders will most likely ask at the Copenhagen climate change negotiations this December $67 billion per year from 2020 onwards to compensate for damages that Africa suffers from the developed world's induced climate change -AlertNet reported.

Experts say Africa contributes little to the pollution blamed for warming, but is likely to be hit hardest by the droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels forecast if climate change is not checked. "This is the time for Africa to aggressively engage to ensure that climate change is effectively addressed," Jean Ping, chairman of the AU Commission, told delegates.

AlertNet: investing in developing world better for climate change than cutting emissions

AlertNet reported about a study commissioned by Bjorn Lomborg, head of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, that revealed the huge benefits of investing in adaptation to climate change in the developing world. In fact, the study claims that

A total of $10 trillion spent on adaptation, ranging from research into drought-resistant crops to measures to limit a spread of diseases such as malaria, would provide $16 trillion of economic benefits over the coming century.

The effects of investing in climate change adaptation in the developing world would be much higher, economically spoken, than purely cutting carbon emissions. A combination of both, however, would result in the highest benefits. Up for discussion in Copenhagen this December!

AlertNet: Farmers to help combat climate change

A new study from the World Agroforesty Centre in Nairobi revealed that farming and forestry are not mutually exclusive, AlertNet reported. This is very important news in the ligtht of the upcoming climate change negotiations to be held in Copenhagen this December. The report showed that on an area of agricultural land twice the size of the amazon, 10% was covered with trees - which would amount to the definition of a 'forest' used by the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation, if it weren't for the fact that it is located on farmland. If farmer's role in combating deforestation would be acknowledged, the report claims that farmers could cover up to 20% of their land with trees.

The report said that farmers keep or plant trees for uses such as production of fruit, nuts, medicines, fuel, building materials, gums or resins. Trees also provide shade for crops, work as windbreaks, boundary markers or to help avert erosion. And trees are often hardier than crops or livestock so can be a backup for farmers on marginal land in hard times.

BBC: Branding Humanitarian Aid - In Pictures

BBC News has put online a series of pictures on the branding of humanitarian aid. They're not that many, so have a quick look!

Happy World Humanitarian Day

19 August will from now on be dedicated to all humanitarians, commemorating those that have lost their lives doing their jobs. The day is very symbolic, as it coincides with the day that a bomb hit the UN compound in Iraq in 2003, leaving 22 deaths among the present UN personnel, including Sergio Vieira de Mello.

As a tribute to all humanitarians, there is now World Humanitarian Day. The family of de Mello also created a Sergio Vieira de Mello foundation to honour those people that have contributed in a special way to the humanitarian cause and to peace and conflict resolution.

It has also been a day to think about humanitarian action in the world of today. Many news sites have reported on the humanitarian space necessary to operate in safety honouring the humanitarian principles (IRIN/AlertNet), the growing lack of this space and the need for higher security measures for humanitarians in Afghanistan (IRIN, Mediapoint Press). Neil Barry, humanitarian specialist at ODI, has put up an interesting post reflecting on his two decades of experience as a humanitarian and humanitarianism in general.

POSTonline: hurricanes at a 1000 year high

The POSTonline reported on a new independent study from Pennsylvania State University that the last decade has seen more hurricanes than any similar period ever before - that is, up to a 1000 years back.

The research suggests that warmer temperatures produce more storm activity - meaning that coming climate change could increase the frequency and severity of hurricane activity.

There's also a possibility that climate change could alter the frequency of El Niño, which blunts hurricane activity, and counteract the effects of future ocean warming.

IDS Bulletin: Climate change meets urban challenges

A very interesting article appeared in last year's IDS Bulletin on climate change. In this article, David Dodman and David Satterthwaite analyse Institutional Capacity, Climate Change Adaptation and the Urban Poor. The analysis the authors present is highly relevant as it focuses on two key issues of BRC policies - climate change and urbanisation.
Next to the impact climate change can have on the urban poor, the authors discuss mainly how authorities can and should respond to the problem. There are also some specific suggestions for international organisations and NGOs. Humanitarian organisations can

• play important roles in climate change adaptation at the urban scale
• provide appropriate sectoral funding (e.g. for urban infrastructure to reduce climate change vulnerability)
• support the development of necessary technical and regulatory capacity
• support adaptation activities directly

IDS Bulletin: how to respond better to AIDS

Reaping the benefits from the free 40 day full access to IDS (see previous post), this post draws your attention to a study by Stuart Gillespie from last year on Poverty, Food security, HIV vulnerability and the impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes that

While the poor are undoubtedly hit harder by the downstream impacts of AIDS, in a variety of ways, their chances of being exposed to HIV in the first place are not necessarily greater than wealthier individuals or households. There is strong evidence that socioeconomic and gender inequalities condition the spread of HIV, while AIDS-related disease and death increases these inequalities – a potentially vicious cycle. [...]
If you are a person living with HIV and you are poor, it will be harder for you to sustainably access antiretroviral therapy; it will be harder to find and pay for treatment for opportunistic infections which (if you are malnourished) will usually be more severe, and it will be harder to ensure any medical treatment is complemented by a diverse and reliable diet. At the household level, poverty will worsen the impacts of other livelihood stresses and shocks, and close down options for effectively responding. At the end of the line, it is women and children who are the most vulnerable.

How to improve the AIDS response?

• pay more attention to the drivers of transmission within different social groups, with special attention to the vulnerabilities of women and children
• enhancing local capacity and improving livelihood strategies will increase the resilience of vulnerable households

IDS: access knowledge (no, not your own) for free!

The Institute for Development Studies celebrates the 40th birthday of its Bulletin by giving everybody free access to all their issues (for a limited period of 40 days).

Flagging up some interseting issues:

• The September 2009 issue on the impact of the global financial crisis on developing countries
  
• The July 2009 issue on combating chronic malnutrition in India
• The September 2008 issue on climate change adaptation (and the poor)

The Guardian: Haiti expects the worst from new hurricane season

With the start of a new hurricane season, the Guardian reported on Haiti's ill-fated history and how the country is fearing that this year's hurricanes may take the biggest toll in people's memory. Yet Haiti is still recovering from last year's hurricanes:

Even in Gonaives – the focus of international relief for Haiti, with visits from Clinton and celebrities including Wyclef Jean – a third of the town remains in ruins. Dozens of people are still living in plastic tents on a scrap of waste-ground on the edge of town. Gary Dupiton, the town engineer, thinks it will take five years to restore the town completely, provided it does not flood again.

This suffering may well be a very visible consuequence of a lack of adaptation to climate change:

It took until last year for the country's elite to begin to see a connection between the devastation of the landscape, and natural disaster. "I have to admit that for the majority of the business society, managing water, managing soil, climate change, these are all things that they talk about on CNN and BBC, or that you hear Al Gore going on about," said Gregory Brandt, a prominent businessman. "It's not for us. I'd say the majority was aware but not concerned."

The country has seen a massive deforestation, which increases the impact of mud floods running downhill towards the ocean making its way through Haitian towns and cities. Efforts by humanitarian organisations, such as Oxfam, to encourage planting of new trees may prove to be 'too little, too late'...

Listen also to Suzanne Goldenberg commenting Haiti's experience with hurricanes and deforestation.

AlertNet: Clinton and drugmakers announce cheaper HIV drugs

Reuters reported that

Former U.S. President Bill Clinton and drugmakers Pfizer and Matrix Laboratories Ltd announced a deal on Thursday to lower the cost of treatments for patients with drug-resistant forms of HIV/AIDS.
Second-line antiretroviral therapies and a drug used to treat tuberculosis for those with drug-resistant HIV/AIDS will be made available at a reduced cost and in more convenient regimens, saving as many as hundreds of thousands of lives in the developing world, Clinton said.

Meyer Foundation: Lessons learned from hiring consultants

The Humanitarian Relief blog pointed out to the following article on the lessons learned when it comes to hiring consultants. Richard Moyers identified three main complaints about the work consultants delivered:

• the consultant didn't understand us
• the consultant was too busy
• the consultant was too directive/not directive enough

Some of Moyer's suggestions for nonprofit organisations is to spend more time verifying whether the consultant is the best fit for the job. Helpful questions in this process include:

• Have you worked with an organization like ours before?
• Have you done a project like this before?
• How many other clients and projects will you be handling while you're working with us?
• How much board and staff time will it take to support your work?
• Do you view yourself as a neutral facilitator, a guide, or a participant in the project?

IRIN: insecurity drives humanitarian organisations out of Pakistan

The growing insecurity in Pakistan has posed several difficulties for the security of staff from several humanitarian organisations, IRIN reports. Since the killing of four aid workers of PLAN international, many NGOs have left the North West Frontier Province, leaving all their beneficiaries behind with no other help coming in. This seems unlikely to change in the near future, as prospects for peace and safety to return remain bleak.

The withdrawal of the UN does not bode well for the province's impoverished people. The same holds true for other areas of Pakistan. "People have suffered, especially women, since NGOs began pulling out. It has meant less awareness, less enlightenment and there has also been a loss of jobs," Mahbano Shahid, an activist formerly employed with an NGO in Mansehra, told IRIN.

Also national agencies are targeted, in particular female aid workers raising awareness about family planning and women's rights.

IRIN: UNHCR faces urban challenges in assisting Iraqi refugees

A new report by UNHCR, Surviving in the City, reviews the agency's operations in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, assisting Iraqi refugees in urban areas, IRIN reports. UNHCR encountered many problems in reaching out to these refugees - a majority of them are not registered, so much of the assistance does not reach those in need. The urban environment poses operational challenges to the agency, as it cannot help the refugees as well as in camps.

The vulnerabilities cited by UNHCR include poverty, resorting to dangerous activities such as prostitution, physical and mental disabilities, and female-headed households whose main breadwinner has been killed in Iraq. [...]
The urban setting poses further challenges. For refugees these include high living costs - most of their money goes on shelter, says UNHCR; travelling long distances to reach registration centres, and problems accessing health and education services.

Attempts to adapt its strategies include a text messaging service to alert refugees of new food distributions and the handing out of ATM cards so that refugees can withdraw money locally rather than travelling to a UNHCR point.

WFP: Nepal malnutrition worse than in Sub-Saharan Africa

WFP warns for severe malnutrition in Nepal that is being neglected by the international community, the Global Politician reports.

The combination of high food prices and the economic downturn has the makings of a grave humanitarian crisis in Nepal (Ranks 142 out of 177 countries in the Human Development Index in 2007) as it has been estimated that 41 of the 75 districts are food deficit. This reveals the grave nutritional statistics across Nepal – Half of children under the age of five in these districts are stunted, while 39 percent of children are underweight and 13 percent are severely malnourished according to the WFP. Meanwhile in some areas chronic malnutrition rates for children under 5 are 80 percent with acute malnutrition rates as high as 23 percent reports WFP. Unfortunately, these realities are not subjected to change in the near future as most Nepalese families survive as subsistence farmers with 24 percent of the population living on less than US$1 per day.

Key to solving this problem is the diversification of farms to increase food production, which

requires essential policy modifications to set up more effective links between food security and workable agricultural development strategies. The heart and soul of the new food security strategy should be better access of poor families to both - the farm and the food.

India Suffers Droughts, But Doesn't Want Plumpy'nut

India's Meteorological Department has released mid-monsoon season figures indicating a nationwide rain deficit of 25%, the Indian Telegraph reports. This may significantly affect the agricultural production in India, with analysts predicting a drop of 10% in production for some regions.

Drought and floods in some areas have resulted in a 25 per cent less sowing of paddy. Agriculture ministry officials are hoping that late rains would see paddy sowing going up in August.

The cause for the lack of rain is attributed to El Nino.
In the meantime, the Indian government says that it has enough stocks from previous years to compensate for the expected losses, and that it is considering a range of actions, among others to prevent food prices from soaring.

This news coincides with the Indian government's denying UNICEF to use Plumpy'nut in combating malnourishment in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. The malnourishment is said to be worse than in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite the fact that WHO has accredited Plumpy'nut as ready-to-use terapeutic food (RUTF), the government does not believe in its effectiveness. Moreover, this particular kind of RUTF was not agreed upon with UNICEF. It prefers Indian alternatives, but these are still being tested and are thus not yet available.

Unicef officials said that there was no local alternative at the time and that RUTF was a medical formula, not a food, which is used to treat, rather than to prevent, malnutrition. “Children with severe acute malnutrition are at risk of imminent death and need immediate, lifesaving treatment,” Angela Walker, a Unicef spokeswoman, said. “Family foods or supplementary foods are not enough; these children need very specific treatment for their condition.” [...]
Other campaigners and experts said that a solution may lie in Indian-made RUTF, which is being produced by at least two Indian companies for export. Médecins sans Frontières, the French medical charity which treats malnutrition in Bihar and other states, said that it was testing local products and hoped to start using them by the end of the year.

IRIN: Dhaka residents threatened by heavily polluted rivers

Several voices warn that the heavy pollution of the rivers around Dhaka has affected the aquatic life beyond rescuing, IRIN reports. Also, this impacts the lives of the Bangladeshi, who need to change jobs, live with the stench and risk skin diseases and other health hazards. Earlier this year, the industral sector admitted that is lacks social responsibility plans, especially when it comes to effluent treatment plants.

"The concentration of organic pollutant in the Buriganga is 17 times higher than the allowable limit of 3mg per litre. Chemical pollutants like ammonia, aluminium, cadmium, lead and mercury have also been detected in the Buriganga," SM Mahbubur Rahman, head of the water resource planning division of the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), said.
The lone sewage treatment facility operated and maintained by Dhaka Water Supply and Sanitation Authority (DWASA) has a treatment capacity of 0.12 million cubic metres per day, while the daily volume of sewage generated in Dhaka city is 1.3 million cubic metres.

Furthermore, the islands in Bangladesh are severely affected by rising tydes and cyclones - especially since tropical cyclone Aila destroyed much of its dykes and flood barriers earlier this year inMay. The Guardian posted an album with pictures of the repair efforts.

IRI: what you always wanted to know about El Niño/La Niña

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has cleared up some misconceptions about El Niño and La Niña, and their impact on climate and natural disasters. But what are they exactly?

El Niño refers to the occasional warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean around the equator. The warmer water tends to get only 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above average sea-surface temperatures for that area, although in the very strong El Niño of 1997-98, it reached 5 degrees or more above average in some locations. La Niña is the climatological counterpart to El Niño-- a yin to its yang, so to speak. A La Niña is defined by cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures across much of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific. El Niño and La Niña episodes each tend to last roughly a year, although occasionally they may last 18 months or longer.

This warming/cooling of the Pacific can have serious impacts on changes in local climate, potentially leading to severe natural disasters, resulting in loss of life and property during floods, failed harvests, increased risk of certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria, ...
But here are some misconceptions - what El Niño and La Niña do not do:

• El Niño periods cause more disasters than normal periods.
• El Niño and La Niña significantly affect the climate in most regions of the globe.
• Regions that are affected by El Niño and La Niña see impacts during the entire 8 to 12 months that the climate conditions last.
• El Niño episodes lead to adverse impacts only.
• We should worry more during El Niño episodes than La Niña episodes.
• The stronger the El Niño/La Niña, the stronger the impacts, and vice versa.
• El Niño and La Niña events are directly responsible for specific storms or other weather events.
• El Niño and La Niña are closely related to global warming.

To find out what the actual effects are, read the extended blog post and check out the article on AlertNet.

• El Niño periods cause more disasters than normal periods. On a worldwide scale that is not the case. However, regionally more disasters may occur. These are fairly consistent, though, and quite predictable. Early warnings can reduce the negative impacts.
  
• El Niño and La Niña significantly affect the climate in most regions of the globe. Actually, they significantly affect only about 25% of the world's land surface during any particular season, and less than 50% of land surface during the entire time that ENSO conditions persist.
• Regions that are affected by El Niño and La Niña see impacts during the entire 8 to 12 months that the climate conditions last. No, impacts are only felt during one season, yet these seasons may differ across the world.
  
• El Niño episodes lead to adverse impacts only. El Niño events are also associated with reduced frequency of Atlantic hurricanes, warmer winter temperatures in northern half of U.S., which reduce heating costs, and plentiful spring/summer rainfall in southeastern Brazil, central Argentina and Uruguay, which leads to above-average summer crop yields.
• We should worry more during El Niño episodes than La Niña episodes. This is not necessarily the case - they each have their own specific effects. The El Niño effects tend to be more mediatised, however.
  
• The stronger the El Niño/La Niña, the stronger the impacts, and vice versa. The impacts on climate-related disasters are only predictions, they do not always occur.
  
• El Niño and La Niña events are directly responsible for specific storms or other weather events. Usually you can't pin a single event on an El Niño or La Niña, just like you can't blame global climate changes for any single hurricane.
• El Niño and La Niña are closely related to global warming. El Niño and La Niña are a normal part of the earth's climate and have likely been occurring for millions of years. Global climate change may affect ENSO cycles, but the research is still ongoing.

Climate Change: Can the Climate Panel have Climate Impact?

In a NYTimes article, Andrew C. Revkin problematises the role of scientists in the fight against climate change. Should scientists speak out and provide policy makers with clear guidelines, or should they limit themselves to merely presenting their models, forecasts and findings in a scientific (i.e. objective and neutral) way?

Leaders from the most visible and known group of scientists working on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including its president Rajendra K. Pachauri, have decided to speak out - albeit in a personal capacity. Their motivation is the big gap between the policy neutral reports of the IPCC (although others contest this neutrality) and the lack of action by the policy makers and world leaders that so support these reports.

In helping to make up your minds on climate change and its humanitarian impact, the Humanitarian Relief blog has compiled a list of resources, including campaigns, news reports, maps and other blogs.
See also the OCHA website on the humanitarian impact of climate change, with some general information and videos.

GHA Report 2009: money - what do we do with it?

The new Global Humanitarian Assistance Report is out. It provides an overview of how much is spent on humanitarian assistance, where it goes and how this meets/does not meet the needs of the beneficiaries.

The four main chapters focus on

• official (DAC) humanitarian assistance
• humanitarian assistance from non-DAC donors
• humanitarian assistance through NGOs
• financial mechanisms

Financing decisions affect behaviour and humanitarian architecture. They help determine the power of different groups and they influence policy priorities and capacity development. The financial choices made within and between humanitarian crises will often have consequences that are felt well beyond the scope of the original time-bound intervention. In short, humanitarian assistance is not just about the scale of contributions.

WHO: Breastfeeding - an emergency response

Emergencies – whether caused by conflict or natural disasters – are extraordinary events that can jeopardize the health and survival of large populations. Children are among the most vulnerable groups during emergencies, and small children are the most vulnerable of all, as they face a triple risk of death from diarrhoeal disease, pneumonia and undernutrition.

Breastfeeding during emergencies saves lives

The life-saving role of breastfeeding during emergencies is firmly supported by evidence and guidance. The Global Strategy for Infant and Young Child Feeding outlines actions to improve infant and young child feeding in emergencies. In all situations, the best way of preventing malnutrition and mortality among infants and young children is to ensure that they start breastfeeding within one hour of birth, breastfeed exclusively (with no food or liquid other than breast milk, not even water) until six months of age and continue breastfeeding with appropriate complementary foods up to two years or beyond. Even in emergency situations, the aim should be to create and sustain an environment that encourages frequent breastfeeding for children up to at least two years of age.

Read more on Reliefweb.

CRED Crunch: Natural disasters in Europe 1989-2008

The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) has published an overview of natural disasters in Europe over the last 20 years (1989 - 2008) in its latest newsletter (July 09).

Federation West Africa food security video on YouTube

This food security work is funded by the DFID IS.

Reuters: WB warns for negative effects of economic crisis on health and education

In line with forecasts brought up in previous blog entries, the World Bank warns for potentially 'disastrous' effects on health and education projects in the developing world, Reuters reports. Especially the social aspect of the global economic crisis has been ignored in most African countries, Marwan Muasher, the World Bank's senior vice president for external affairs, said to Reuters.

Developing countries, initially shielded from the direct impact, are now being hurt by "second and third waves" of the financial crisis, which is coming on the heels of a damaging upward spiral of food and fuel costs, he said.
In particular, this was being felt in a drop of remittances, reduced investment in health, education and infrastructure projects and the inability to find credit, Muasher said.
"Health and education are the first areas to be dropped by governments in poor countries when budget deficits are high. This will have disastrous consequences in the long term."

All this could be prevented, according to Muasher, if 0.7% of all stimulus plans would go to the support of the school and health projects currently at risk.

IRIN: IPCC and meteorologists to help with humanitarian climate change DRR

Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) announced it would start working on a "how to" manual (expected in 2011) for policy-makers and disaster officials on managing the risks of extreme weather events and bolstering resilience, to promote adaptation to global warming, IRIN reported.

The IPCC's special report would help agencies like IFRC, which are trying to draw up plans to help communities prepare for extreme weather events, especially in areas where climate change forecasts are uncertain.

At last disaster risk reduction and climate change adaption are being studied together (see in this regard a report by Mitchell and van Aalst), and it is being acknowledged that DRR plays an important role as a 'first line of defence', a first step towards longer-term adaption.

IRIN also reported on the successful co-operation between the IFRC and meteorological services in predicting natural disasters occurring. This allows specialised teams to get in place before the disaster happens, gaining valuable time in making disaster responses more effective.

Reuters/Guardian: Record budget shortfall for UN aid agencies

Thanks to Michael Bear for highlighting a Reuters news release and a Guardian analysis on the Humanitarian Relief blog.

Reuters reports that both the global economic downturn and the drastic increase in needs in Pakistan have contributed to a record funding gap of $4.8 billion.

Yet some 43 million people need assistance this year, up from 28 million in 2008.
While there have been no large natural disasters so far in 2009, the global downturn has amplified needs in impoverished countries, and especially in those in protracted crisis such as Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan.

This situation is not likely to improve, as the 2009 contributions of the major donor countries had already been set before the economic crisis had hit them.
However, the main problem is one of political will rather than lack of money. As Conor Foley in his Guardian analysis points out,

It would cost around 1% of the money thrown at western banks in the last six months to bridge the current humanitarian deficit. Yet politicians will continue to play a game of cynical brinkmanship over where the money should come from, confident that it will be the UN itself that gets blamed for the resulting deaths and human misery.

For more figures on how the economic crisis has affected other humanitarian organisations, see another blog entry by Michael Bear.

ALNAP: Key messages from its 8th RHA

The 8th edition of ALNAP's Review of Humanitarian Action series has come out in July 09. As of yet only available electronically, but soon also in printed edition (Aug 09).

The 8th Review contains three in-depth studies.
The first study is on humanitarian performance and provides a wide-ranging overview of the performance agenda - at the heart of ALNAP's work - drawing on experiences from the private, public and development sectors.
The second study focuses on improving humanitarian impact assessment, and provides a comprehensive framework to help bridge theory and practice in operational settings.
The third study is a systematic review of innovations in international humanitarian response, which presents ways to think about and strengthen innovations across the sector.

ALNAP: Humanitarian Performance Project

As part of its Humanitarian Performance Project (HPP), ALNAP is currently piloting a mechanism which aims to provide a regular assessment of system-wide humanitarian performance. The project will compile some fundamental measures of the composition and performance of the international humanitarian system, providing a baseline for assessing future progress. They want to get as diverse a range of actors as possible to participate, especially field-based practitioners, and invite you to complete a short survey which should take no more than 20 minutes. Click here to begin. A French version is also available and can be accessed here.

HPN: People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia

Network Paper 66, Solving the risk equation: People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia, explains why the information and analysis system recently established within the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture represents a substantial new opportunity for people-centred disaster risk assessment. The vulnerability component of the analytical process was previously missing or patchy at best; with the establishment of the national livelihoods information system, this gap has been largely filled.

Reuters: Abyei ruling settles Sudan land dispute

Last Wednesday, July 22, the Arbitration Court in the Hague settled with its ruling a long standing land dispute of the central, oil rich Sudanese region of Abyei. North Sudan gets a vast area where most of the oil fields ly, whereas the bulk of the region, including huge areas of fertile land and one significant oil field, has been given to Abyei - whose inhabitants are to decide in a Januari 2011 referendem whether or not they will join South Sudan, Reuters reported.

All parties have formally reaffirmed their adherence to the Hague ruling, yet some voices express their concern and remain sceptical on the peaceful outcome of events.

"The crucial thing will be whether both sides accept this ruling," Alex Vines, Africa specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, told Reuters. "Tensions have risen in the last few days and the next few months will be absolutely crucial."

For more reports, comments and analysis, see (among others): Refugees International, Enough, African Press International and Sudan Watch.
For more background on Abyei, see the briefing on the IRIN website[...]. Refugees International:

This is a fragile moment for peace and political progress between north and south Sudan. Recent media reports of southern Sudanese troop movements in the Abyei region underscore the tension and risk for more violence.

Enough:

Recent efforts to reinvigorate CPA implementation will be wasted if the international community does not work assiduously to reach a durable political settlement on Abyei and other outstanding issues. [...] Continued stalemate in Abyei is a recipe for a return to full-scale civil war, the humanitarian consequences of which are awful to contemplate.

Sudan Watch offers a whole lot of reactions from Sudanese officials on the ruling.

African Press International:

Abyei will continue to be a flashpoint, and sustained attention, including negotiations between the parties on long-term wealth-sharing arrangements related to Abyei’s oil reserves, are the only way to mitigate the risk that Abyei will unravel the North-South peace.

For more background on Abyei, see the briefing on the IRIN website.

Tufts: Livelihood Impacts of Disarmament in Uganda

The latest report published by Tufts' Feinstein International Center, Changing Roles, Shifting Risks: Livelihood Impacts of Disarmament in Karamoja, Uganda by Elizabeth Stites and Darlington Akabwai, is the result of the first phase of a partnership with Save the Children in Uganda. It examines the experiences and perceptions of communities of the present disarmament campaign carried out by the Uganda People's Defence Force and the Government of Uganda.

We find that although individual experiences with disarmament have been largely negative, there is overwhelming support among local communities for an end goal of complete and uniform disarmament as a means of bringing peace and economic development. At the same time, the current policies of disarmament have brought major changes to livelihood roles and responsibilities by gender and generation, and associated shifts in exposure to risk. We examine the effects of disarmament on security, livestock management, peace processes, and food security and coping systems. Recommendations are made to international and national actors for programming, policy-making and advocacy in the areas of livelihoods and engagement with disarmament processes.

Disasters: New Theme Issue on Reconstruction

ODI has published a new Disasters theme issue, Emerging Perspectives on the Politicisation of Reconstructing Conflict-Affected Countries. This issue tries to bridge the gap between academic reconstruction theories and the local practices:

Studies of reconstruction have, despite being a critical issue for many years, long suffered from an acute disassociation between theory and practice on the one hand and academic and policy circles on the other. Recent events in Iraq and Afghanistan have exacerbated these problems, necessitating a thorough and, perhaps most pertinently, critical evaluation of both the state of the debate and the state of the art. This theme issue aims to contribute to such a process of reflection by drawing on evidence from reconstruction efforts undertaken in a wide range of local contexts.

The theme issue contains the following articles:
Emerging patterns in the reconstruction of conflict-affected countries
'Rule of Law' initiatives and the liberal peace: the impact of politicised reform in post-conflict states
Insurgency, militias and DDR as part of security sector reconstruction in Iraq: how not to do it
The gift of disaster: the commodification of good intentions in post-tsunami Sri Lanka
Who owns the peace? Aid, reconstruction, and peacebuilding in Afghanistan
A very political reconstruction: governance and reconstruction in Lebanon after the 2006 war

This and other editions of Disasters are available from the BRC library, or online by emailing library@redcross.org.uk.[...].

The first contribution, Emerging patterns in the reconstruction of conflict-affected countries, contextualises the five main contributions to this issue. The overall argument that Tim Jacoby and Eric James make is that the comination of three patterns, 'marketisation', 'politicisation', and 'securitisation', has narrowed the space in which humanitarian and reconstructive interventions into conflict-affected countries are organised and undertaken.

In the second article, 'Rule of Law' initiatives and the liberal peace: the impact of politicised reform in post-conflict states, Jenny H. Peterson talks about how the instrumental use of RoL programming provides further evidence of weaknesses and contradictions within the politicised liberal peacebuilding project (since it increases security in the short term, but threatens the sustainability of peacebuilding reforms in the long run, as seen in Kosovo), necessitating reconsideration of its role in post-conflict transformations.

In Insurgency, militias and DDR as part of security sector reconstruction in Iraq: how not to do it, Alpaslam Ozerdem discusses the dangers and pitfalls of DDR in a highly complex and insecure environment such as Iraq.

Benedikt Korf et al. analyse in The gift of disaster: the commodification of good intentions in post-tsunami Sri Lanka, the perpetuation of the political economy that has driven social conflict and discontent in the post-independence years in Sri Lanka.

The fourth article, Who owns the peace? Aid, reconstruction, and peacebuilding in Afghanistan, by Jonathan Goodhand and Mark Sedra, examines how aid policies and programmes have become part of a complex bargaining game involving international actors, domestic elites, and societal groups. It argues that international donors' failure to appreciate or engage sensitively and strategically with these bargaining processes, when combined with contradictory intervention objectives, has contributed to the steady unravelling of a fragile war-to-peace transition in Afghanistan.

In the last contribution, A very political reconstruction: governance and reconstruction in Lebanon after the 2006 war, Christine Sylva Hamieh and Roger Mac Ginty examine how in general many Western states and Western-backed international institutions favoured governance programming (software) while many Arab and Gulf State donors preferred physical reconstruction projects (hardware), often with an emphasis on large-scale, high-visibility infrastructure projects. They argue that the latter were able to connect more effectively with the political culture of Lebanon.