Alertnet: Global warming created new (and worse) type of El Niño

Reuters reported on the publication in the most recent issue of Nature of research that assesses the impact of global warming on El Niño in Australia and India:

Global warming may have spawned a new type of El Nino in the central Pacific and this could worsen the droughts in Australia and India, a new study by researchers in South Korea and the United States has found.

While the conventional El Nino is a warm body of water stretching across the tropical Eastern Pacific, this new El Nino is a horseshoe-shaped region of warm ocean in the central Pacific flanked by unusually cooler waters, they wrote in a paper published in the latest issue of Nature.

AlertNet: Bad harvest + El Niño = Hunger in the Horn of Africa

The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has released a new report warning for increased hunger in Eastern Africa, Reuters reported. The number of food aid-dependent people, now already some 20 million, is likely to increase following poor crop forecasts due to continued drought in the region.

The effects of El Niño, which usually brings heavy rains towards the end of the year, could make matters worse, resulting in floods and mudslides, destroying crops both in the field and in stores, increasing livestock losses and damaging infrastructure and housing.

In Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia crops are expected to drop significantly and endanger the food security of many millions of Africans. But, worst hit is Somalia:

According to FAO's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, Somalia is facing the worst humanitarian crisis in 18 years, with approximately half the population - an estimated 3.6 million people-- in need of emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance. This includes 1.4 million rural people affected by the severe drought, about 655 000 urban poor facing high food and non-food prices, and 1.3 million internally displaced people, a result of escalating fighting and conflict.

HIV as you've never seen it before

Luke Jerram's glass microbiology sculptures. He has a show on at the Smithfield Gallery from the 22nd September to the 3rd October, 10am-6pm, and the launch is the 22nd September 6-8pm.

Hat-tip, once again, to Chris Blattman.

IRIN: A rough guide to climate change in Africa

The World Economic and Social Survey (WESS), published annually by the UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs, has devoted its 2009 issue to climate change. It includes an accessible, if unsettling, guide to some of the major impacts of climate change in various African countries, based on the IPCC's reports. Some headlines after the jump, or read more and download the full report from IRIN.

Some headlines:

Food security

East Africa

Rainfall is expected to increase in some parts of the region. The loss of about 20 percent of plant and animal life in Lake Tanganyika is projected, with a 30 percent decrease in fish yields. In Kenya a one-metre rise in the sea level could affect the production of mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts, causing losses of almost US$500 million a year. On the plus side, in parts of the Ethiopian highlands a combination of higher temperatures and better rainfall may lengthen the growing season.

Southern Africa

More frequent El Niño conditions - in which sea surface temperatures become warmer across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean - could disrupt rains, bringing a notable drop in maize production. On the other hand, growing seasons may lengthen in parts of Southern Africa, for example Mozambique, owing to a combination of increased temperature and higher rainfall. South Africa: In Africa's major grain producer net revenues from crops could shrink by up to 90 percent by 2100.

Water resources

East and West Africa

Rainfall is likely to increase in these regions, easing droughts in the east of the continent but bringing more frequent floods in the west.

Southern Africa

Large areas of the region are already experiencing water shortages, or are arid and trying to prevent encroaching desertification, so there is likely to be a greater number of people living with water stress by 2055 as rainfall becomes more erratic or declines.

Health

West Africa

Good news! By 2050 and beyond, a large part of the western Sahel will probably become unsuitable for malaria transmission.

East Africa

Based on parasite survey data, the previously malaria-free highland areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by 2080s. In central Somalia, areas that now have low rates of malaria could develop high prevalence of the disease. Rift Valley fever epidemics - evident during the 1997-1998 El Niño event in East Africa and associated with flooding - could become more frequent and widespread as El Niño events increase.

Southern Africa

More areas are likely to become more suitable for malaria, with a southward expansion of the transmission zone into Zimbabwe and South Africa.

How do humanitarians learn?

The most excellent Chris Blattman started the sort of rolling debate that makes the humanitarian blogosphere quite a useful place to have one's antennae out for this week when he posed a few questions - and offered some solutions - on his blog:

First, a lot of people aren’t in the habit of reading, either because they don’t like it or (more likely) they want to, but (like many of us) they find it hard to turn aspiration into action, especially in the frantic business of aid. Second, it’s one thing to read more research, and another to read it critically. Alone. Without falling asleep. And third, it’s another great leap entirely to turn reading into application.

He suggested getting into reading blog posts by humanitarians, absorbing the CARE academy's resources, running global reading clubs and getting cheap mp3 players packed with podcasts like Owen Barder's Development Drums series into every Landcruiser, and suggested that a humanitarian blogger supergroup could write posts, provide podcasts and even innovate some miraculous techy widget to help.

Paul Currion over at humanitarian.info was interested but unmoved. He asked where the evidence was that research, reading and learning directly improved programmes, over and above improving the minds of the humanitarians doing the reading; criticised the writing style of academic articles which are 'functionally useless' for many hands-on aid workers. He also rightly points out that on a six-hour car ride or after a 12 hour working day, the last thing anyone wants to do is 'listen to a detailed discussion of a book about nutrition'. Instead, he proposes:

1. Holding workshops in the field that bring people together across a) different organisations, b) different countries and/or c) different disciplines, focus on core transferable skills, emphasising practical skills that reflect policy. Old school!
2. Creating structures that enable the professional links developed in those workshops to be maintained more effectively over time. Call it social networking if you must, but stop looking at Facebook. This is where the technology comes in – new school!
3. Then (and this is the really, really difficult bit) let these groups define the direction of future learning. Regularly poll staff to see what they want to learn, how they want to learn and when they want to learn, and shape your approach accordingly.

There needs to be some imagination around these two approaches, a willingness for organisations to give up control of the learning process, and a long-term investment that will definitely see mixed results.

So then Michael Bear at Change.org jumps in. He appreciates the initial thought and the critique that followed it, but doesn't think much of the solutions proposed.

Blattman assumes that all aid workers are somehow alike, or at least assumes that most aid workers actually want to delve into the literature and research, and that it's only external barriers - be they technological or stylistic (cue cliche about academic writing) - that keep them from doing so.

In my experience, aid workers are just like everyone else. Some want to learn more, and some don't.

Podcasts and book clubs might entice the first group, but certainly not the second.Currion, on the other hand, does a good job of critiquing Blattman's argument, but then comes up somewhat short in terms of offering concrete suggestions - the recommendation to "create structures" without any further detail isn't all that useful.Instead, I think the answer is institutional - aid workers, like everyone else, respond to incentives.

Especially when those incentives are tied to performance evaluations. If aid agencies are serious about fostering learning, they'll make it a requirement, tying it to bonus or other incentive structures. Agencies could require that aid workers take X number of online courses a year, or organize mandatory trainings and workshops to disseminate the latest research and learning...

This costs money, but everything costs money. It's all a matter of prioritization. If learning is in fact critical to the delivery of effective aid programs, then it should be prioritized by aid agencies. If learning isn't critical to the delivery of effective aid programs, then we shouldn't worry about it overmuch.

On the other hand, Amanda at Wronging Rights liked the podcast idea, which she sees as already happening. She notes that '...aid workers are certainly receptive to new ideas and research... I get emails all the time from people in the field or freshly out of it, engaging with our posts and offering new ideas.' This certainly chimes with my experience - people in the field seem to be starved of the opportunity to debate and share learning and it's the people at Head Office who would rather swallow whole copies of Disasters than sit through another workshop. She goes on:

My suggestion: don't think of the aim of this project as getting people in the field to read, or to listen. Think of it as getting them to write, and to talk. Measure success in terms of posts blogged, tweets tweeted, pods casted, and articles published by the workers you're trying to reach, on the subjects you want to publicize.

Focus on the conversation, and getting it to become self-perpetuating, and the information dissemination/absorption will take care of itself. No one wants to sound like an idiot, so they'll need to process the information before they can comment on it. (And if they do go ahead and put out uninformed blather, then that's a useful signal for anyone thinking of hiring them...)

Equally importantly, making this project about discussion will also ensure that the flow of information runs both ways: not just academia to field, but field back to academia.

So what do you think? Do we need to worry about getting people in the field and at Head Office to learn, and discuss what they take in? Have these guys missed the point a bit by not talking about the importance of sharing what you've learned, not from books, articles and blog posts, but from programmes and the people they work with and for? How can we help either of those things to happen? Let us know your views in the comments field below - I know I and everyone else whose role it is to support learning in the humanitarian sector would really value the debate extending beyond us lot - people who by definition spend their time geeking out on the internet.

Change.org: Aid Worker PTSD

Some excellent resources for stressed-out aid workers linked from Change.org's Humanitarian Relief blog this week.

ALNAP: new online system for dissemination of members' announcements

ALNAP has announced that members can use a new system to disseminate vacancies, events and activities among ALNAP members on its renewed website, instead of emails sent out by the Secretariat.

Full members can long in their accounts, where they will find three clickable links to post vacancies, activities or events as appropriate.

Observer members can forward the details of their announcements to alnap@alnap.org, after which these details will be posted online.

If you wish to stay up to date, make sure to check regularly ALNAP's Jobs & Consultancies, Calendar of Events and Members' activities. Alternatively, you can subscribe to the appropriate RSS feed on the feeds page (where you will also find more instructions on how to use them).

Great graphic on humanitarian gaps

From Reliefweb, via Change.org, the snappily-titled 'Major Humanitarian Crises Requirements Snapshot':

Silly name or not, it's an interesting and informative glance.

Running out of/on water?!

Several messages in the past week have highlighted the various ways in which water is becoming more and more a challenge in the lives of disaster-afflicted populations.
In Kenya, for example, the first climate change refugees have given up their herder life styles to settle down to make charcoal or sell firewood. Droughts in the country have gone up from once every decade up to almost every year. This gives nomades too little time to recover from losses suffered. In addition to the greater scarcity in drinking water, drought-induced hunger is more and more becoming a security concern in the country as well, with higher levels of violence reported.
In a similar vein, Timor Leste President Ramos-Horta warns for land-and-water wars in the near future, unless more attention will be paid to the rural areas that are more and more affected by the disastrous impacts of climate change.
On the other hand, several countries, notably in the Caribbean area, are hit by hurricanes and floods with greater intensity every year, said John Holmes, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. If no drastic reduction in carbon house emissions is negotiated at Copenhagen in December, he warns, these extreme water conditions (both the lack and abundance of it) will lead to unprecedented population movements, with high potential for conflict.
In a response to these threats, Reuters reports,

A 155-nation conference in Geneva agreed on a plan to improve climate information to help people cope with ever more droughts, floods, sandstorms and rising sea levels projected this century. The plan for a "Global Framework for Climate Services" includes the appointment of a task force of high-level, independent advisors within four months.

The panel's report is expected in twelve months, with recommendations on among others disaster risks, human health, transport and tourism, managing water, energy and securing food supplies.

HPG policy brief: a clash of principles in Pakistan?

A new policy brief of the Humanitarian Practice Group (HPG) discusses the response of the humanitarian community in Pakistan and assesses the dilemma between sticking to a principled approach and supporting the government's efforts to rebuild stability in the country. The fight against the Taliban invokes more military and political responses of the government, often overriding the humanitarian principles.

Aid agencies are faced with the dilemma of engaging with and supporting government efforts to promote stability or maintaining a principled approach. Their added value in promoting stability is not clear and their influence over these processes is likely to be mixed. A principled approach will be limiting in terms of influencing domestic policy and gaining access. Resolving or managing these dilemmas will require strategic decision-making based on context analysis and strong leadership.
Irrespective of the approach adopted, advocacy has a significant role to play in ensuring adherence to International Humanitarian Law in the conduct of hostilities, that there is sufficient humanitarian funding and that efforts to promote stability ensure that the needs of the most vulnerable are met, and that political and security considerations do not override the humanitarian imperative.

IRIN: UNEP report says HIV/AIDS and climate change should join forces

A new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and UNAIDS, IRIN reports, seeks to join the global activist forces in the fight against climate change and HIV/AIDS. So far, both threats have known separate responses, but climate change may very well have many impacts that could worsen the HIV/AIDS situation in the developing world.

The biggest threat - already present in many parts of the world - is food insecurity caused by more intense and widespread droughts, and other extreme weather events such as flooding.

The authors also speculate that competition for increasingly scarce resources brought on by climate change, such as water and grazing, may heighten the risk of conflict and migration, and deepen gender and social inequities - all factors with the potential to fuel the spread of HIV.

Academic article: Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work

Women's unpaid care work is a feature of life in sub-Saharan countries, where nearly 67% of PLWHA live and where 75% of all AIDS deaths occurred in 2007. Women comprise 58% of adult HIV infections and tend to be more adversely affected because of their primary caregiving role.

Increasing reliance on home-based care to supplement an overstretched health system fails to acknowledge the cost on the patient, the carer and the wider family, including financial resources, time resources, and opportunity costs. For women, this means time taken away from paid work, unpaid household chores, and agriculture. For girl children, caregiving is at the expense of school work, leisure activities and important social development activities - including HIV prevention activities. In many cases, particularly when heading a family as a result of being orphaned, many girls cannot go to school at all, renouncing their right to education - affecting their potential income and career choices, and ability to play a role in wider society.

Policies should be developed to recognise these effects and take into consideration the needs of women and girl children carers, including the right to education. An option might be to see care work as a professional career option which would allow girls, women and workers to progress and develop. This would create a pool of trained, qualified professionals who are adequately compensated. Finally, challenging the assumption and strong cultural traditions that mean caring is women's work, not men's, would lay the foundation for a more equal sharing of care responsibilities.

Citation: Makina, A. (2009) Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work, in Gender and Development, Vol 17, No. 2, July 2009 pp309-319

Summary by Laura.

Change.org picks Kenya as a brewing troublespot

Michael Bear of the Humanitarian Relief blog on Change.org has listed Kenya with Chad and Southern Sudan as a coming humanitarian crisis. His analysis:

The stable bastion of east Africa. Except, well, for those rather brutal post-election riots in early 2008, the scars of which are still not completely healed. The Kenyan economy is forecasted to shrink next year, the first time the economy has contracted in almost a decade. Corruption is, if anything, growing worse, while the price of basic commodities is increasing - for instance, the cost of maize has doubled over the past year.

And, finally, we're looking at a full-blown food crisis in the coming months, as drought and spiraling prices have left 3.8 million Kenyans dependent on food assistance. (For a map of the drought early warning stages in Kenya, see here.)

An ineffective coalition government. A shrinking economy. Rising food prices. A recent history of violence. Not good, not good at all.

Read more here.