If you read one thing this week: excellent summary of Dead Aid

If anyone, like me, has been curious about the kerfuffle raised by Dambisa Moyo's book on ODA, 'Dead Aid', but not sufficiently time-rich or interested to read the whole thing, then take two minutes to digest this very useful summary. Excellent for bumping up your conference small talk.

Sierra Leone supplies security contractors to Iraq

A report that a British PSC is employing ex-combatants from Sierra Leone in Iraq on a salary of $250 a month plus free training, room and board - just under ten times what they would earn at home but a fraction of the salary a Western security worker can command in Iraq, which can be in the region of $100k.

UPDATED: Shrinking costs of war?

UPDATE 26.01.10: Change.org's Daniel Gerstle looks at the sampling methods behind the statistics.

Quite a lot of discussion of the new Human Security Report [links to pdf], which revises down some of the estimated numbers killed in conflicts such as the civil war in the Congo and argues that actually, conflict is less deadly than it used to be. The International Rescue Committee disagrees, and Bill Schabas thinks it's all very interesting. Reuters explains why the numbers matter.

Meanwhile, Reuters also reports on a Lancet article (no, not that one) suggesting that 80% of the 300,000 conflict-related deaths in Darfur since 2003 were caused by disease.

Updated: Haiti: Africa and the Gulf States send aid

Updated: 22.01.10 Roundups on more African aid to Haiti here and here.

IRIN has covered aid sent from the Gulf States and Africa - how long before this is no longer newsworthy I wonder?

Guardian: GM crops to save Africa from disaster?

In a new scientific paper, professor Sir Gordon Conway predicts a catastrophic increase of food shortages in Africa, as a result of the devastating impact of climate change on the continent - the Guardian reported. Africa already suffers to a greater extent than the rest of the world from the effects of climate change, such as rising temperature, more droughts, floods and storm surges.

Conway predicts hunger on the continent could increase dramatically in the short term as droughts and desertification increase, and climate change affects water supplies. "Projected reductions in crop yields could be as much as 50% by 2020 and 90% by 2100," the paper says.

"In certain circumstances we will need GM crops because we wont be able to find the gene naturally. GM may be the speediest and most efficient way to increase yields. Drought tolerance is governed by a range of genes. It is a big problem for breeders of [both] GM and ordinary plants."

Sir Gordon argues that more research into climate change needs to be done. Whereas forecasts all predict increasingly extreme weather conditions, their exact manifestation remains uncertain.

Liberia: Jeneh's story - moving on from war

AlertNet: Bad harvest + El Niño = Hunger in the Horn of Africa

The UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has released a new report warning for increased hunger in Eastern Africa, Reuters reported. The number of food aid-dependent people, now already some 20 million, is likely to increase following poor crop forecasts due to continued drought in the region.

The effects of El Niño, which usually brings heavy rains towards the end of the year, could make matters worse, resulting in floods and mudslides, destroying crops both in the field and in stores, increasing livestock losses and damaging infrastructure and housing.

In Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia crops are expected to drop significantly and endanger the food security of many millions of Africans. But, worst hit is Somalia:

According to FAO's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit, Somalia is facing the worst humanitarian crisis in 18 years, with approximately half the population - an estimated 3.6 million people-- in need of emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance. This includes 1.4 million rural people affected by the severe drought, about 655 000 urban poor facing high food and non-food prices, and 1.3 million internally displaced people, a result of escalating fighting and conflict.

IRIN: A rough guide to climate change in Africa

The World Economic and Social Survey (WESS), published annually by the UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs, has devoted its 2009 issue to climate change. It includes an accessible, if unsettling, guide to some of the major impacts of climate change in various African countries, based on the IPCC's reports. Some headlines after the jump, or read more and download the full report from IRIN.

Some headlines:

Food security

East Africa

Rainfall is expected to increase in some parts of the region. The loss of about 20 percent of plant and animal life in Lake Tanganyika is projected, with a 30 percent decrease in fish yields. In Kenya a one-metre rise in the sea level could affect the production of mangoes, cashew nuts and coconuts, causing losses of almost US$500 million a year. On the plus side, in parts of the Ethiopian highlands a combination of higher temperatures and better rainfall may lengthen the growing season.

Southern Africa

More frequent El Niño conditions - in which sea surface temperatures become warmer across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean - could disrupt rains, bringing a notable drop in maize production. On the other hand, growing seasons may lengthen in parts of Southern Africa, for example Mozambique, owing to a combination of increased temperature and higher rainfall. South Africa: In Africa's major grain producer net revenues from crops could shrink by up to 90 percent by 2100.

Water resources

East and West Africa

Rainfall is likely to increase in these regions, easing droughts in the east of the continent but bringing more frequent floods in the west.

Southern Africa

Large areas of the region are already experiencing water shortages, or are arid and trying to prevent encroaching desertification, so there is likely to be a greater number of people living with water stress by 2055 as rainfall becomes more erratic or declines.

Health

West Africa

Good news! By 2050 and beyond, a large part of the western Sahel will probably become unsuitable for malaria transmission.

East Africa

Based on parasite survey data, the previously malaria-free highland areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by 2080s. In central Somalia, areas that now have low rates of malaria could develop high prevalence of the disease. Rift Valley fever epidemics - evident during the 1997-1998 El Niño event in East Africa and associated with flooding - could become more frequent and widespread as El Niño events increase.

Southern Africa

More areas are likely to become more suitable for malaria, with a southward expansion of the transmission zone into Zimbabwe and South Africa.

Running out of/on water?!

Several messages in the past week have highlighted the various ways in which water is becoming more and more a challenge in the lives of disaster-afflicted populations.
In Kenya, for example, the first climate change refugees have given up their herder life styles to settle down to make charcoal or sell firewood. Droughts in the country have gone up from once every decade up to almost every year. This gives nomades too little time to recover from losses suffered. In addition to the greater scarcity in drinking water, drought-induced hunger is more and more becoming a security concern in the country as well, with higher levels of violence reported.
In a similar vein, Timor Leste President Ramos-Horta warns for land-and-water wars in the near future, unless more attention will be paid to the rural areas that are more and more affected by the disastrous impacts of climate change.
On the other hand, several countries, notably in the Caribbean area, are hit by hurricanes and floods with greater intensity every year, said John Holmes, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. If no drastic reduction in carbon house emissions is negotiated at Copenhagen in December, he warns, these extreme water conditions (both the lack and abundance of it) will lead to unprecedented population movements, with high potential for conflict.
In a response to these threats, Reuters reports,

A 155-nation conference in Geneva agreed on a plan to improve climate information to help people cope with ever more droughts, floods, sandstorms and rising sea levels projected this century. The plan for a "Global Framework for Climate Services" includes the appointment of a task force of high-level, independent advisors within four months.

The panel's report is expected in twelve months, with recommendations on among others disaster risks, human health, transport and tourism, managing water, energy and securing food supplies.

Academic article: Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work

Women's unpaid care work is a feature of life in sub-Saharan countries, where nearly 67% of PLWHA live and where 75% of all AIDS deaths occurred in 2007. Women comprise 58% of adult HIV infections and tend to be more adversely affected because of their primary caregiving role.

Increasing reliance on home-based care to supplement an overstretched health system fails to acknowledge the cost on the patient, the carer and the wider family, including financial resources, time resources, and opportunity costs. For women, this means time taken away from paid work, unpaid household chores, and agriculture. For girl children, caregiving is at the expense of school work, leisure activities and important social development activities - including HIV prevention activities. In many cases, particularly when heading a family as a result of being orphaned, many girls cannot go to school at all, renouncing their right to education - affecting their potential income and career choices, and ability to play a role in wider society.

Policies should be developed to recognise these effects and take into consideration the needs of women and girl children carers, including the right to education. An option might be to see care work as a professional career option which would allow girls, women and workers to progress and develop. This would create a pool of trained, qualified professionals who are adequately compensated. Finally, challenging the assumption and strong cultural traditions that mean caring is women's work, not men's, would lay the foundation for a more equal sharing of care responsibilities.

Citation: Makina, A. (2009) Caring for People with HIV: state policies and their dependence on women's unpaid work, in Gender and Development, Vol 17, No. 2, July 2009 pp309-319

Summary by Laura.

Change.org picks Kenya as a brewing troublespot

Michael Bear of the Humanitarian Relief blog on Change.org has listed Kenya with Chad and Southern Sudan as a coming humanitarian crisis. His analysis:

The stable bastion of east Africa. Except, well, for those rather brutal post-election riots in early 2008, the scars of which are still not completely healed. The Kenyan economy is forecasted to shrink next year, the first time the economy has contracted in almost a decade. Corruption is, if anything, growing worse, while the price of basic commodities is increasing - for instance, the cost of maize has doubled over the past year.

And, finally, we're looking at a full-blown food crisis in the coming months, as drought and spiraling prices have left 3.8 million Kenyans dependent on food assistance. (For a map of the drought early warning stages in Kenya, see here.)

An ineffective coalition government. A shrinking economy. Rising food prices. A recent history of violence. Not good, not good at all.

Read more here.

AlertNet: Africa wants $67 bln per year to compensate global warming

As if they were picking up last week's call to invest in developing countries to combat climate change, African leaders will most likely ask at the Copenhagen climate change negotiations this December $67 billion per year from 2020 onwards to compensate for damages that Africa suffers from the developed world's induced climate change -AlertNet reported.

Experts say Africa contributes little to the pollution blamed for warming, but is likely to be hit hardest by the droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels forecast if climate change is not checked. "This is the time for Africa to aggressively engage to ensure that climate change is effectively addressed," Jean Ping, chairman of the AU Commission, told delegates.

IDS Bulletin: how to respond better to AIDS

Reaping the benefits from the free 40 day full access to IDS (see previous post), this post draws your attention to a study by Stuart Gillespie from last year on Poverty, Food security, HIV vulnerability and the impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. The study concludes that

While the poor are undoubtedly hit harder by the downstream impacts of AIDS, in a variety of ways, their chances of being exposed to HIV in the first place are not necessarily greater than wealthier individuals or households. There is strong evidence that socioeconomic and gender inequalities condition the spread of HIV, while AIDS-related disease and death increases these inequalities – a potentially vicious cycle. [...]
If you are a person living with HIV and you are poor, it will be harder for you to sustainably access antiretroviral therapy; it will be harder to find and pay for treatment for opportunistic infections which (if you are malnourished) will usually be more severe, and it will be harder to ensure any medical treatment is complemented by a diverse and reliable diet. At the household level, poverty will worsen the impacts of other livelihood stresses and shocks, and close down options for effectively responding. At the end of the line, it is women and children who are the most vulnerable.

How to improve the AIDS response?

• pay more attention to the drivers of transmission within different social groups, with special attention to the vulnerabilities of women and children
• enhancing local capacity and improving livelihood strategies will increase the resilience of vulnerable households

Federation West Africa food security video on YouTube

This food security work is funded by the DFID IS.

Reuters: WB warns for negative effects of economic crisis on health and education

In line with forecasts brought up in previous blog entries, the World Bank warns for potentially 'disastrous' effects on health and education projects in the developing world, Reuters reports. Especially the social aspect of the global economic crisis has been ignored in most African countries, Marwan Muasher, the World Bank's senior vice president for external affairs, said to Reuters.

Developing countries, initially shielded from the direct impact, are now being hurt by "second and third waves" of the financial crisis, which is coming on the heels of a damaging upward spiral of food and fuel costs, he said.
In particular, this was being felt in a drop of remittances, reduced investment in health, education and infrastructure projects and the inability to find credit, Muasher said.
"Health and education are the first areas to be dropped by governments in poor countries when budget deficits are high. This will have disastrous consequences in the long term."

All this could be prevented, according to Muasher, if 0.7% of all stimulus plans would go to the support of the school and health projects currently at risk.

HPN: People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia

Network Paper 66, Solving the risk equation: People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia, explains why the information and analysis system recently established within the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture represents a substantial new opportunity for people-centred disaster risk assessment. The vulnerability component of the analytical process was previously missing or patchy at best; with the establishment of the national livelihoods information system, this gap has been largely filled.

Reuters: Abyei ruling settles Sudan land dispute

Last Wednesday, July 22, the Arbitration Court in the Hague settled with its ruling a long standing land dispute of the central, oil rich Sudanese region of Abyei. North Sudan gets a vast area where most of the oil fields ly, whereas the bulk of the region, including huge areas of fertile land and one significant oil field, has been given to Abyei - whose inhabitants are to decide in a Januari 2011 referendem whether or not they will join South Sudan, Reuters reported.

All parties have formally reaffirmed their adherence to the Hague ruling, yet some voices express their concern and remain sceptical on the peaceful outcome of events.

"The crucial thing will be whether both sides accept this ruling," Alex Vines, Africa specialist at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, told Reuters. "Tensions have risen in the last few days and the next few months will be absolutely crucial."

For more reports, comments and analysis, see (among others): Refugees International, Enough, African Press International and Sudan Watch.
For more background on Abyei, see the briefing on the IRIN website[...]. Refugees International:

This is a fragile moment for peace and political progress between north and south Sudan. Recent media reports of southern Sudanese troop movements in the Abyei region underscore the tension and risk for more violence.

Enough:

Recent efforts to reinvigorate CPA implementation will be wasted if the international community does not work assiduously to reach a durable political settlement on Abyei and other outstanding issues. [...] Continued stalemate in Abyei is a recipe for a return to full-scale civil war, the humanitarian consequences of which are awful to contemplate.

Sudan Watch offers a whole lot of reactions from Sudanese officials on the ruling.

African Press International:

Abyei will continue to be a flashpoint, and sustained attention, including negotiations between the parties on long-term wealth-sharing arrangements related to Abyei’s oil reserves, are the only way to mitigate the risk that Abyei will unravel the North-South peace.

For more background on Abyei, see the briefing on the IRIN website.

HPN: The Role of the Affected State in humanitarian action

Humanitarian Exchange Magazine 43 features articles on the role of the affected state in humanitarian action. Case studies explore the extent to which economic growth, political stability and experience impact on the willingness and capacity of states to manage disaster response. The surprisingly positive role the military has played in supporting effective state-led disaster response is also highlighted and perceptions – often promoted by the media – that only international relief agencies can save lives and alleviate suffering are challenged. The role of the state in humanitarian action is, however, not always positive, as illustrated in articles focused on Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe.

Feature stories:
Aid and access in Sri Lanka
The silver lining of the tsunami?: disaster management in Indonesia
When the affected state causes the crisis: the case of Zimbabwe
Humanitarian governance in Ethiopia
Land and displacement in Timor-Leste
Lessons from the Sichuan earthquake

Practice and policy notes
Britain and Afghanistan: policy and expectations
Are humanitarians fuelling conflicts? Evidence from eastern Chad and Darfur
Lessons from campaigning on Darfur
Supporting the capacity of beneficiaries, local staff and partners to face violence alone
Stuck in the ‘recovery gap’: the role of humanitarian aid in the Central African Republic
Out of site, out of mind? Reflections on responding to displacement in DRC
Making cash work: a case study from Kenya

HPG: Changing drylands: approaches to preventing disaster among pastoralists in the Horn and East Africa

People in the Arid and Semi Arid Lands of the Horn and East Africa have adapted over the ages to hot and dry conditions. Living as pastoralists, they keep livestock in ways that take advantage of production and follow a natural cycle of rangeland and water use. Today pastoralism makes a significant contribution to the income of many Horn and East African countries and contributes to the livelihoods of many millions of people. However, recurrent droughts, limited access to land and restrictive policies are stretching pastoralists' ability to cope. Many of the less fortunate have fallen into destitution and poverty.

Governments and international agencies have yet to find effective solutions to the natural and political vulnerabilities of these communities in ways that respect the complexity of pastoral livelihoods. What is more, the short-term focus of their responses has failed to address the underlying causes of problems – in some cases, compounding them.

This set of Synthesis Papers presents analysis and recommendations on a range of issues affecting pastoralists in the Horn and East Africa. They will be launched at a major regional symposium in Nairobi, Kenya today (May 15th) with follow up events and seminars in Uganda, Ethiopia and Somalia in the coming months.

Use the links below to access the individual papers:

Getting it right: Understanding livelihoods to reduce the vulnerability of pastoral communities

Social protection in pastoral areas

Demographic trends, settlement patterns and service provision in pastoralism

Mobile pastoral systems and international zoosanitary standards

Pastoralism, policies and practice in the Horn and East Africa: A review of current trends

Pastoralism and climate change: Enabling adaptive capacity

HPG: Sara Pantuliano on the impact of Darfur expulsions on the Three Areas

The expulsion of 12 foreign aid agencies and one private development firm and the suspension of three national NGOs by the Sudanese government following the issuing of an international arrest warrant for President Bashir has generated widespread concerns about the potential impact of an interruption of aid on civilians at risk. These concerns have, though, been largely limited to Darfur. Worryingly, very little attention has been focused on the repercussions these expulsions could have on the Three Areas (Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile) and the eastern region which have only recently emerged from conflict and remain highly volatile.

Read more on Alertnet.

Sara has written about the consequences of the expulsion of the 13 major aid agencies for people relying on assistance in Darfur - download a pdf report here.